Linux Desktop Momentum
May 11th, 2009 by Jeff Jaffe
My first entry to the Novell CTO blog was entitled “The Linux Desktop has arrived“. How well have we done? Where are we today? What can we expect in the immediate future?
Not Too Bad!
Based on industry data, the Linux desktop has achieved respectable growth since this blog entry. The number of Linux desktop units has grown from 9.6M in 2006 to 13.9M in 2008, a compound growth rate of 20%. Given Microsoft’s marketshare at the beginning of this period, even an excellent growth rate of 20% is less than I would have hoped. On the other hand, given their market presence one can argue that the rate of 20% is substantial.
How do we get greater momentum? In my original blog entry, I focused on feature, function, and cost. The basic message was—the Linux desktop has all the desired features at a fraction of the cost—so the value proposition is compelling. In later blogs, I also added the emphasis on interoperability. So our desktop has desirable features, an attractive cost, and it interoperates with Microsoft. Yet we are still stuck at the 20% growth rate!
Distribution
It’s interesting to go back to the Comments on my blog and see the wisdom that was out there three years ago. Pcfixer posted the following observation:
[what] major linux distros are missing right now is two things
- the lack of resellers
The products are greater than they have ever been but if a customer can’t find a computer preinstalled with them they will end up paying for win xp or whatever Microsoft is producing for the moment.- you need some of the major hardware wendors like IBM HP or Dell selling your products pre installed and available in shops not only in the US but in every city around the world.
Pcfixer has a point. So we have focused on distribution. For example, in LinuxWorld 2007 we announced premium distribution partnerships to accelerate the Linux desktop.
The Next Step in the Massive Expansion of the Linux Desktop
We continue to expand our partnership with distribution partners. We have focused on the lower end of the market. For this environment, after the customer has spent modestly to get an outstanding workstation, they are highly incented to find an operating environment which matches the low-cost of their hardware.
Last month, HP announced their HP ProBook seriers, focused on the small and medium business user. Users in this market segment want Linux. So selected models will offer SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop (SLED) 11 preinstalled.
The next attractive target is the rapidly growing market for Netbooks. Intel Corporation has done a great service to the community by launching and incubating Moblin—a Linux platform for Mobile devices. The Linux Foundation has similarly stepped up—by agreeing to host this community going forward. This community needs a substantial Linux distributor to carry these enhancements into a supported distribution. So last week, we stepped up—announcing with Intel our agreement to collaborate further, and to open a laboratory in Taiwan to foster the adoption of Moblin.
We are passionate about the Linux desktop. We now have function, innovation, interoperability, low-cost, and distribution. Two recent events—HP ProBook and Netbooks—have reinforced the momentum for the Linux desktop.